The Russian War Against Ukraine: a Case Study in Climate, Conflict, and Green Recovery
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21564/2414-990X.166.315465Keywords:
Russian War against Ukraine, climate crises, climate security, climate justice, international climate change regime, green recovery reconstruction, war emissions accountability, decarbonisation, equitable transition, energy transitionAbstract
The Russian war against Ukraine, having brought monumental social, economic, and environmental devastation, serves as acompelling case study demonstrating the broader implications of climate crises, underscoring the complex interplay between fossil fuel dependency and geopolitical tensions, and illustrating that the fight for climate justice and the fight for peace are deeply interconnected.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has the potential to leverage post-war reconstruction as an unprecedented opportunity for comprehensive decarbonisation and ecological recovery. Examining the limitations of the international climate change regime and exploring controversial aspects of fossil fuel production, this paper highlights the hidden climate costs of war, and investigates the concept of ‘climate change as a battle’ and how it can frame the global discourse on climate security and climate justice. It argues thataddressing climate change is akin to fighting a war, requiring mobilisation of resources, political will, and international solidarity. In this context, Ukraine’s experience offers valuable lessons for the global community as it navigates the complex challenges of post-conflict recovery while simultaneously addressing the urgent need for climate action. With the right assistance, Ukraine could emerge as a front-runner in the global energy transition, inspiring other nations to pursue ambitious climate action even in the face of adversity.
References
ADNOC (2022), ‘Supreme Petroleum Council approves ADNOC’s five-year business plan and US $150 billion capex to enable accelerated growth’, Press Release, 1 December 2022. Retrieved from https://adnoc.ae/en/news-and-media/press-releases/2022/supreme-petroleum-council-approves-adnocs-five-year-business-plan-and-us-150-billion-capex-to-enable-accelerated-growth.
Alexander, P., Tanvir, A., Folberth, C., Frank, S., Fritz, S., Hann, W. & Jones, C.D. et al. (2023), ‘The Russia–Ukraine war and global food security: A seven-week assessment’, SSRN Electronic Journal. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4387213.
AMAP (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme) (2021), ‘Arctic Climate Change Update 2021: Key Trends and Impacts’, AMAP Secretariat. Retrieved from https://www.amap.no/documents/doc/arctic-climate-change-update-2021-key-trends-and-impacts.-summary-for-policy-makers/3508.
Asplund, T. (2011), ‘Metaphors in climate discourse: An analysis of Swedish farm magazines’. Journal of Science Communication, 10(4): A01. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.22323/2.10040201.
BP (2021), BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021, 70th edn. Retrieved from https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf.
Biden, J. (2020), ‘The Biden plan for a clean energy revolution and environmental justice’, Joe Biden for President: Official Campaign Website. Retrieved from https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/.
CEOBS (2023), Ukraine War Environmental Briefing: April 2023. Conflict and Environment Observatory. Retrieved from https://ceobs.org/ukraine-war-environmental-briefing-april-2023/.
Chatham House (2024), ‘The Confiscation of Immobilized Russian State Assets Is Moral and Vital’, 19 May 2024. Retrieved from https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/05/confiscation-immobilized-russian-state-assets-moral-and-vital.
Council of the European Union (2022), ‘Ukraine: Council grants EU candidate status’, Press release, 23 June 2022. Retrieved from https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/06/23/european-council- conclusions-on-ukraine-the-membership-applications-of-ukraine-the-republic-of-moldova-and-georgia-western-balkans-and-external-relations-23-june-2022/.
Council of the European Union (2024), ‘EU sanctions against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine’, Press Release. Retrieved from https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive- measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/.
de Klerk, L., Shlapak, M., Gassan-zade, O., Korthuis, A., Zibtsev, S., Myroniuk, V., Soshenskyi, O., Vasylyshyn, R., Krakovska, S. & Kryshtop, L. (2024), ‘Climate Damage Caused by Russia’s War in Ukraine: 24 February 2022-23 February 2024.’ Report, Initiative on GHG Accounting of War. Retrieved from https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YIHwfyGjRKNDlWClfeGkpZGaDWAHxrZr/view.
Dennehy, J. (2023), ‘Ukraine: Decarbonising the Energy System’, E3G Briefing Paper. Retrieved from https://www.e3g.org/publications/ukraine-decarbonising-the-energy-system/.
Diffenbaugh, N.S. & Barnes, E.A. (2023), ‘Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached’. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120: e2207183120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2207183120.
Economichna Pravda (2024), ‘85% of Thermal Power Plants, 50% of Hydro Power Plants Damaged Due to Latest Attacks’, 3 June 2024. Retrieved from https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/3/7458900/.
EGOB (European Group on Earth Observations) (2024), ‘Ukraine conflict environmental briefing: The climate crisis’. Retrieved from https://ceobs.org/ukraine-conflict-environmental-briefing-the-climate-crisis/.
Ember (2024), ‘European Electricity Review 2024’. Retrieved from https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2024/.
European Commission (2005), ‘Winning the battle against global climate change’, Memo/05/42. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/MEMO_05_42.
European Commission (2022), ‘REPowerEU: A plan to rapidly reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and fast forward the green transition’, Press release, 18 May 2022. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131.
European Council (2023), ‘European Council conclusions, 9 February 2023’, Press Release. Retrieved from https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/02/09/european-council-conclusions-9-february-2023/.
European Environment Agency (2022), ‘Economic losses from climate-related extremes in Europe’, Indicator Assessment, 18 August 2022. Retrieved from https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/economic-losses-from-climate-related.
Farand, C. (2021), ‘Emmanuel Macron: “We are at war against climate change”’, Climate Home News, 23 April 2021. Retrieved from https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/04/23/emmanuel-macron-war-climate-change/.
Financial Times (2023), ‘EU nations turn to Russian LNG despite sanctions’, 18 April 2023. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/a1f289f2-d5f5-4c2f-8f4f-f0c3c0e6c8f5.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2021), ‘The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural markets and the risks associated with the current conflict’, Information Note, 25 March 2022. Retrieved from https://www.fao.org/3/cb9236en/cb9236en.pdf.
Government of Canada (2022), ‘Trans Mountain Expansion Project’, Natural Resources Canada, 29 April 2022. Retrieved from https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/energy-sources-distribution/clean-fossil-fuels/pipelines/energy-pipeline-projects/trans-mountain-expansion-project/18724.
Government of Ukraine (2022), ‘Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan’, Presented at Ukraine Recovery Conference, Lugano, Switzerland, 4–5 July 2022. Retrieved from https://recovery.gov.ua/en.
Harmash, O. (2023), ‘Ukrainian Economy in 2022: A Year of Losses and Resilience’, VoxUkraine, 5 January 2023. Retrieved from https://voxukraine.org/en/ukrainian-economy-in-2022-a-year-of-losses-and-resilience/.
Higgins, P. (2023), ‘Ecocide: The missing international crime’, Journal of International Criminal Justice, 21(2): 337–58.
Hulme, M. (2009), Why We Disagree About Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press). https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511841200.
Humpert M. (2024), ’EU Prepares 14th Sanctions Package Against Russia, Including LNG Sector’, High North News, 5 June 2024. Retrieved from https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/eu-prepares-14th- sanctions-package-against-russia-including-lng-sector.
IEA (International Energy Agency) (2023), ‘World Energy Investment 2023’. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2023.
IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2022), ‘How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World’s Regions’, IMF Blog, 15 March 2022. Retrieved from https://blogs.imf.org/2022/03/15/how-war-in-ukraine-is-reverberating-across-worlds-regions/.
IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2023), The Long-lasting Economic Shock of War. Retrieved from https: //www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/03/the-long-lasting-economic-shock-of-war.
Institute of International Finance (2023), ‘Global Debt Monitor: Pandemic Update’, January 2023. Retrieved from https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/4762/Global-Debt-Monitor-Pandemic-Update.
Kinstler, L. (2022), ‘Ukraine’s war spurs innovation in renewable energy’. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/world/europe/ukraine-renewable-energy.html.
Klinsky, S. (2015), ‘Justice and boundary setting in greenhouse gas cap and trade policy: A case study of the western climate initiative’, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 105(1): 105–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2014.960043.
Lanteigne, M. (2019), ‘The Changing Shape of Arctic Security’, NATO Review, 28 June 2019. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2019/06/28/the-changing-shape-of-arctic- security/index.html.
Legal Response International (2022), ‘Suspension of the Russian Federation from the UNFCCC Process’, Legal Opinion, 22 March 2022. Retrieved from https://legalresponse.org/legaladvice/suspension-of-the- russian-federation-from-the-unfccc-process/.
Libby, C.A. (2023), ‘Fueling conflict: The role of fossil fuel subsidies in enabling Russia’s war on Ukraine’, Energy Research & Social Science, 93: 102858. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102858.
Lo, J. (15 December 2023), ‘How Russia won a “dangerous loophole” for fossil gas at Cop28’, Climate Home News. Retrieved from https://www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/15/how-russia-won-a-dangerous-loophole-for-fossil-gas-at-cop28/.
Londoño, E. & Casado, L. (2022), ‘Petrobras to expand Amazon oil and gas drilling under Lula’, The New York Times, 14 December 2022. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/world/americas/brazil-amazon-oil-gas-drilling-lula.html.
López-Blanco, E., Exbrayat, J.-F., Lund, M., Christensen, T.R., Tamstorf, M.P., Slevin, D., Hugelius, G., Bloom, A.A. & Williams, M. (2023), ‘Greenland permafrost dynamics and the carbon cycle in a changing climate’, Nature Climate Change, 13: 31–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01561-9.
Machlis, G.E. & Hanson, T. (2008), ‘Warfare ecology’, BioScience, 58(8): 729–36. https://doi.org/10.1641/B580809.
Macron, E. (2021), ‘Remarks by President Macron at the Leaders Summit on Climate’ Élysée Palace, 22 April 2021. Retrieved from https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2021/04/22/remarks-by- president-emmanuel-macron-at-the-leaders-summit-on-climate.
Mann, M.E. (2021), The New Climate War: The Fight to Take Back Our Planet (New York, PublicAffairs).
National Association of Manufacturers (2022), ‘Manufacturers’ Survey Reveals Current Industry Impact of Russian Invasion of Ukraine’, Press Release, 11 March 2022. Retrieved from https://www.nam.org/manufacturers-survey-reveals-current-industry-impact-of-russian- invasion-of-ukraine-17312/.
Nguyen, T. (2023), ‘The climate dimension of the Russia–Ukraine war: Assessing the impact of AI and energy consumption’, Journal of International Environmental Law, 34(1): 89–105. https://doi.org/10.1093/jiel/jgad006.
OECD (2022), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 2: Preliminary Version (Paris, OECD Publishing). https://doi.org/10.1787/f6da2159-en.
Oneal, J.R. & Russett, B. (1999), ‘The Kantian peace: The Pacific benefits of democracy, interdependence, and international organizations, 1885–1992’, World Politics, 52(1): 1–37. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887100020013.
Pirani, S. (2018), Ukraine’s Gas Sector (The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies). Retrieved from https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/ukraines-gas-sector/.
Ramirez, J.M. (2022), ‘The case for low carbon warfare and reparations for environmental damage’, Journal of Environmental Law and Policy, 42(3): 289–315. https://doi.org/10.1093/jel/eqac007.
Ramirez, J.M. (2023), ‘Prosecuting ecocide under national and international law: Challenges and opportunities’, Environmental Law Review, 25(4): 263–79. https://doi.org/10.1177/1461452923112345.
RazomWeStand (2023), ‘Fossil fuel subsidies and the Russian war on Ukraine’, Research report. Retrieved from https://www.razomwestand.org/fossil-fuel-subsidies-and-russian-war/.
Russia Fossil Tracker (2024), ‘Russian fossil fuel export revenues since the start of the war in Ukraine’. Retrieved from https://fossiltracker.ru/en/.
Schlosberg, D. (2007), Defining Environmental Justice: Theories, Movements, and Nature
(Oxford, Oxford University Press). https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199286294.001.0001.
SecDev Group (2022), ‘Ukraine Conflict Report: Geopolitics of Energy and Resources’. Retrieved from https://secdev.org/2022/08/ukraine-conflict-report-geopolitics-of-energy-and-resources/.
Shahzad U., Mohammed K.S., Tiwari S., Nakonieczny J. & Nesterowicz R. (2022), ‘Connectedness between geopolitical risk, financial instability indices and precious metals markets: Novel findings from Russia Ukraine conflict perspective’, Resources Policy, 78: 103190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103190.
Shankleman, J. (2023), ‘Ukraine’s energy crisis prompts renewable revolution’, Bloomberg. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-22/ukraine-energy-crisis-spurs-renewables.
Slezak, M. (2023), ‘A mockery’: expert panel rails at Adani mine’s environmental protection conditions’, The Guardian, 16 March 2023. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/16/a-mockery-expert-panel-rails-at-adani- mines-environmental-protection-conditions.
Smith, A. (2023), ‘Ecocide in the context of armed conflicts: The need for international recognition and accountability’, Journal of International Humanitarian Law, 14(1): 57–75. https://doi.org/10.1163/18781527-14010006.
Statista (2024), ‘Civilian Casualties of the War in Ukraine’, 15 January 2024. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293492/ukraine-war-casualties/.
Stepanenko, K., Barros, G. & Clark, M. (2024), Ukraine’s Long-Term Path to Success: Jumpstarting a Self-Sufficient Defense Industrial Base (Institute for the Study of War). Retrieved from https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine’s-long-term-path-success-jumpstarting-self- sufficient-defense-industrial-base.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (2024), ‘Global military spending surges amid war, rising tensions and insecurity’. Retrieved from https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2024/global- military-spending-surges-amid-war-rising-tensions-and-insecurity.
Stop Ecocide Foundation (2021), ‘Top International Lawyers Unveil Definition of “Ecocide”, Press Release, 22 June 2021. Retrieved from https://www.stopecocide.earth/press-releases-summary/top- international-lawyers-unveil-definition-of-ecocide.
Swiss Re Institute (2021), ‘The economics of climate change: no action not an option’, Swiss Re, April 2021. Retrieved from https://www.swissre.com/dam/jcr:e73ee7c3-7f83-4c17-a2b8-8ef23a8d3312/swiss- re-institute-expertise-publication-economics-of-climate-change.pdf.
The Business Times (2024), ‘G7 to tap frozen Russian assets for US$50 billion Ukraine aid’. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/g7-tap-frozen-russian-assets-us50-billion-ukraine
The Telegraph (26 January 2024), ‘From scones to drones: inside Putin’s arms race that is leaving the West behind’. Retrieved from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/26/russia-arming-itself-faster-than-nato/.
Thomas, N. & Warner, B.P. (2019), ‘Weaponizing vulnerability to climate change’, Global Environmental Change, 57: 101928. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101928.
Troianovski, A. (2023), ‘Amid Conflict, Ukraine Turns to Solar Power’, The Washington Post, Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/15/ukraine-solar-energy-resilience.
Ukrainian Energy Ministry (2023), ‘Innovative Energy Solutions in Response to Grid Attacks’. Government of Ukraine Official Report. Retrieved from https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/innovative-energy-solutions-response-grid-attacks.
UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) (1992), ‘Parties to the Convention and Observer States’. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/process/parties-non-party-stakeholders/parties-convention-and-observer- states?field_national_communications_target_id%5B515%5D=515.
UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) (2023a), ‘Declaration on climate, relief, recovery and peace’, Adopted at COP28, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 December 2023. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/documents/610676.
UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) (2023b), ‘New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance’, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/NCQG.
United Nations (2021), ‘Climate Change and Security’. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/climate-change-and-security.
US Geological Survey (2022), ‘Mineral Commodity Summaries 2022’, U.S. Geological Survey, 202 p. https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2022.
Vettorazzi, S. (2022), ‘Environmental crime in a wartime context’, European Parliamentary Research Service. Retrieved from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2022/733555/EPRS_ BRI(2022)733555_EN.pdf.
Wilkerson, L. (2023, February 16), ‘Critical thinking: War with Russia will start in the Arctic unless leaders at the Munich Security Conference move to stop climate change.”. Friends of Europe. Retrieved from https://www.friendsofeurope.org/insights/critical-thinking-war-with-russia-will-start-in- the-arctic-unless-leaders-at-the-munich-security-conference-move-to-stop-climate-change/.
Wolff, E. (2020), ‘Biden Outlines $2 Trillion Climate Plan’, Politico, 14 July 2020. Retrieved from https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/14/biden-2-trillion-climate-plan-353848.
World Bank (2022), ‘Commodity Markets Outlook: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Commodity Markets’. Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/38160/CMO-October-2022.pdf.
World Bank (2023), ‘Ukraine economic update, September 2023’. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/brief/ukraine-economic-update-september-2023.
World Bank Group, European Commission, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Government of Ukraine (2024), ‘Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment’, February 2024. Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40109.
World Economic Forum (2022), The Global Risks Report 2022, 17th edn, Insight Report. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-report-2022/.
Zagoruichyk, A., Savytskyi, O., Kopytsia, I. & O’Callaghan, B. (2023), ‘The Green Phoenix Framework: Climate-positive Plan for Economic Recovery of Ukraine’. Smith School Working Paper 23-03. Retrieved from https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-06/The-Green-Phoenix- Framework-a-climate-positive-plan-for-economic-recovery-in-Ukraine.pdf.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Ievgeniia Kopytsia
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
